StormySkies

Spinning Storms, Raging Debates

So the issue question of the week is whether drilling in ANWR would effectively reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. 

I doubt it.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, based on a 1998 study, there are 4.3 to 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable barrels of oil - though whether they are economically recoverable depends on the price of oil.   

U.S. oil demand in the U.S. is currently about 22 million barrels per day.  That suggests that ANWR has enough technically recoverable oil to meet American needs for between 6.5 and 17.5 months.  It's not nothing, but we're not talking about a major impact. It doesn't seem worth the risk to me for what is ultimately a short-term fix anyway. 

About hurricanes and the equator: Certainly the ocean water is warm enough.  The problem is that within a few degrees latitude of the equator, there is not enough Coriolis Effect to get the hurricanes spinning.  Because the earth is a sphere, it causes storms to spin counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.  It follows that there is a band in the middle where this effect isn't pronounced. That spinning is causes wind to accelerate as it gets closer to the center, much like figure skaters spin faster as they pull their arms in. 

For next week, just one question: Is there a scientific debate on global warming?

Great snow site

Happy Friday.  Hey, if you like weather, and especially snow, as i do, then it's definitely worth checking out John Dee's Snow Central. He lives in the snow belt of Michigan's Upper Penisula and is a former meteorologist with the National Weather Service. He's got what's essentially a blog on the site, but it's a lot more too.  In fact, I think he's become a semi-official booster for tourism in the area, accepting web ads from local outfits, organizing snowmobile riding events and so forth.  I've only been up there once in the winter, but it's true, there's just a ton of white stuff up there. 

Anyway, his detailed snow forecasts, issued daily Monday through Friday, cover the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and northern parts of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.  He does shorter forecasts for the NE in the heart of the season too.  He just started up this week again.  There are an amazing number of webcams too - something he calls the "North Cam Network" which covers his whole forecasting region plus a few Western resorts. 

If you're planning any winter fun in the North Country, it's definitely the place to go to get a read on conditions.

Now, to my avian flu question:  I applaud the attention the issue is now getting by politicians and pharma companies worldwide (here's the latest), and it seems to me, it's entirely appropriate, especially since it seems pretty inevitable that somebody there's likely to be a significant viral outbreak across a large region, whether it's avian flu or something else. The problem is it gets a lot of regular people worried who shouldn't be.  Want to protect yourself today?  Buckle up and drive defensively. 

And the coldest state:  Tough to sort out, even keeping Alaska out of it.  A guy at USA Today tried a couple years ago.  It looks to me like North Dakota comes out on top.

Issue question of the week:  How exactly does drilling in ANWR effectively reduce dependence on foreign oil? 

Weather question: Why no hurricanes near the equator?  We'll tackle these next week!

Be nice to science

Hi again.  Well, yes the football has been essentially lousy, but that's okay, I can get more done on the weekend.  I picked 10 bags of leaves off the lawn yesterday and today it doesn't look like I did anything.

Answer to questions from last week:
Why can the wind blow from East to West when weather generally moves from West to East? 
The answer is simply that weather systems are "steered" by winds a few miles up, and those winds in fact do move in a generally  West to East direction.  As a storm system approaches, however, particularly if the system is coming up from the southwest, winds blowing around and into the center of the low will give you East winds.  East winds mean stormy weather.

Is Intelligent Design a scientific theory?
Sorry, no. A scientific theory means it can be tested with the scientific method.  You know, make a hypothesis, set up an experiment, test and then perhaps refine the theory.  Intelligent Design is basically an answer to a currently unknowable question that assumes no scientific explanation.  How do you prove or disprove that?

The problem here is people believing that science and religion can't co-exist, and I don't buy it. I heard a rabbi - I don't remember who - speak at the National Press Club and he said science is about how things work and religion is about how to live, and I think that's about right.  They're two different things and religion need not be threatened by it.  (I'm a practicing Lutheran in case you're wondering.) I'm a little troubled by attacks on science lately.  Paul Holmes wrote a recent lengthy piece in his weekly newsletter for the PR industry called, "How Governments, Corporations and NGOs Distort Science." He quotes science reporter Chris Mooney: "If Americans come to believe you can find a scientist willing to say anything, they will grow increasingly disillusioned with science itself. Ultimately, trapped in a tragic struggle between 'liberal' science and 'conservative' science, the scientific endeavor itself could lose legitimacy."

We need science to keep pace with some big challenges in our world - from global warming to starvation and new viruses.  Let's not try to demonize it.

Weather question of the week:  What's the coldest state in the Lower 48? 

Issue question of the week: How fearful should we be about avian flu?  (there's no definitive answer here but it's a worthwhile question)

StormySkies - What's This All About

I haven't quite decided what this blog is going to be all about yet, but if you'd like to come along with me, that would be great!  You'll have to get used to my dry sense of humor.  And don't expect too many more exclamation points like the one in this paragraph - I use them sparingly. 

StormySkies - I didn't spend weeks thinking of the name but it seems right. I have an interest in meteorology and climate issues and undoubtedly I'll spend time talking about those things here. But the name also refers to need to delve into world and societal issues too. I will do my best to not be easy to categorize, though - politically, socially or whatever.  I think most of my positions are pretty mainstream.  I can be provocative though - something for you to look forward to. I live in the suburbs but as a fomer city-dweller, connect with the city (as really all suburbanites should do - a sick city isn't good for anyone).

Issue question of the week: Is Intelligent Design a scientific theory or a religious belief?

Weather question of the week: If weather in the continental U.S. generally moves from West to East, how can the wind blow from the East?

You'll have to check back to hear more on those. 

Classic weekend for hot apple cider and another miserable round of NFC North football.  Bye for now.

Aaron